Oil prices soared, the United States and Europe are begging for each other, why is Saudi Arabia unwilling to help?

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and the international energy turmoil hits the global economy. While wielding the stick of sanctions against Russia, how to fill the short supply in the oil market caused by the sanctions against Russia has become the top priority of the West.

At this moment, U.S. and European officials are frequently seen in Eastern Europe under the cloud of war, and they are also traveling back and forth between oil-producing countries in the Middle East who are looking for something. On March 15, Blake McGurk, the Middle East policy coordinator of the US National Security Council, led a delegation to Saudi Arabia. A day later, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also set foot on the land of the world's largest crude oil exporter.

Saudi Arabia is one of the few oil-producing countries with spare capacity, but when the West is making frequent requests to increase oil production, Saudi Arabia still insists on abiding by the production agreement previously reached with major oil-producing countries such as Russia. According to the negotiation between 13 OPEC members and 10 non-OPEC oil-producing countries including Russia, in July 2021, the major oil-producing countries agreed to increase the average daily output by 400,000 barrels per month from August of that year until the recovery in 2020. The size before the production cut in April. According to the analysis, many oil-producing countries have not reached their production targets, and Saudi Arabia and Russia are the only two countries with large room for production increases.

After U.S. President Joe Biden took office, he changed the style of his predecessor, Trump, and changed his policy toward Saudi Arabia. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has also become increasingly tense. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Biden was in no rush to talk to the Saudi leader — but now, the initiative appears to be falling into Saudi hands.

Unwilling to follow the pace of the United States

The turmoil in the crude oil market comes as the West is increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia to further increase production and isolate Russia, but Saudi Arabia has not shown a cooperative attitude. As early as on February 27, during a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed said that Saudi Arabia will continue to abide by the oil production increase agreement previously reached with major oil-producing countries such as Russia. This attitude has not changed significantly so far.

The Wall Street Journal previously quoted an anonymous U.S. official as saying that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed refused to answer Biden’s call on March 8 because the United States was clinging to the killing of Khashoggi. At that time, American media analyzed that this may also be because the Biden administration did not give sufficient support to Saudi Arabia in the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen, and did not take into account Saudi Arabia’s wishes in the negotiations to resume the Iran nuclear deal. But then, White House press secretary Psaki denied the refusal to answer the call on the grounds that the information was "inaccurate".

On March 15, McGurk led a U.S. delegation that met with senior Saudi officials, again urging it to increase production, while also discussing "a wide range of issues, including the war in Yemen," the source said, according to Reuters. .

"After Biden came to power, he emphasized value diplomacy, did not make the Middle East issue a priority agenda, and criticized Saudi Arabia's Yemen policy a lot." Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher at the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn). On the issue of the Serbian armed forces and the Iranian nuclear issue, Saudi Arabia does feel that its security concerns have not been given sufficient attention by the United States. In addition, Saudi Arabia and other countries have their own assessments of the situation and prospects of the international energy market, and it will take time to draw conclusions and communicate and coordinate. In this context, Saudi Arabia and other countries have a relatively indifferent attitude towards the United States and are unwilling to cooperate with the United States on issues such as energy and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

The United Arab Emirates, another major oil producer in the Gulf, is also not in step with the United States and Europe. On February 25, the UAE abstained from voting on a Security Council resolution drafted by the United States condemning Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine. In the "Wall Street Journal" report, the UAE also, like Saudi Arabia, rejected Biden's call request. After Johnson described Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as "key international partners to cut off dependence on Russia's oil and gas" on March 16, Abdul-Khalek Abdullah, a prominent UAE political analyst, said that Johnson should not hold Too much hope. "Boris (Johnson) will come home empty-handed," he tweeted.

The UAE ambassador to the United States, Yousuf Al-Otaiba, issued a statement on March 9 saying that the UAE was willing to increase production and encouraged other OPEC members to increase production. At that time, oil prices fell to about $110 a barrel. However, international oil prices rebounded to a high of nearly $122 a barrel on March 10 after UAE Energy Minister Mazroui emphasized that the UAE will comply with the previous OPEC+ production agreement.

Zou Zhiqiang also pointed out that the continued high international oil price is not entirely a good thing for the Gulf oil-producing countries. "The Gulf countries will negotiate and intervene to maintain the stability of the energy market and their own long-term interests, and it is not entirely to help the United States ease the oil price problem." He said, "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cannot completely ignore the pressure of the United States. As the United States further Put pressure on, and both countries will respond.”

Rival Iran as an alternative?

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that unless OPEC raises supply levels, the international oil market will fall into short supply as early as the second quarter of this year. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that there is no additional source of supply to balance the market other than the spare capacity of major OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. At present, international oil inventories have fallen to multi-year lows, and the prospect of Iran increasing supply also seems remote. and.

Due to the rise in international oil prices since the middle of last year, the United States is suffering from an unprecedented high level of inflation. The current inflation rate is estimated to have reached nearly 8%, which has become one of the key factors that can affect the US mid-term elections this year. When it was overwhelmed, the Biden administration had to find another way. On March 5, a high-level U.S. delegation visited Venezuela and held talks with Venezuelan President Maduro. The U.S. side said that the two sides discussed a series of issues such as "energy security" during the talks.

Foreign media analysis believes that the United States may relax or lift sanctions on Venezuela in exchange to divide Venezuela's alliance with Russia, and hopes to directly import crude oil from Venezuela to ensure its own energy supply. But this vision will not be realized in the short term. Al Jazeera reported that the infrastructure of Venezuela's oil sector is aging, with current production of about 700,000 barrels a day, and more investment will be needed to increase production.

If a new Iran nuclear deal can be reached in the short term, Iran will also become a potential alternative to the United States. The return of Iranian oil to world markets could lower prices by at least 10%, The Washington Post previously reported. At the moment, Iran also hopes to take advantage of the unstable global energy market to gain a greater advantage in the Vienna negotiations.

"The primary motivation for the United States to return to the Iran nuclear deal is not for oil prices, but an agreement and the lifting of sanctions on Iran's oil exports will definitely help ease international oil prices and help solve urgent needs. The United States is also happy to see this in the context of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. "Zou Zhiqiang said.

"But it should be noted that Iran cannot completely replace Russia, and in fact no other oil and gas exporter can do this." Zou Zhiqiang also pointed out that Iran is still the core concern of Saudi Arabia. "Saudi Arabia naturally does not want to see the lifting of restrictions on Iran's oil exports, and it does not want to see Iran's increased power and regional influence as a result."

Saudi Arabia is motivated to "look east"

As U.S.-Saudi relations hit a low point, despite maintaining close security ties with the U.S., Saudi Arabia responded by strengthening ties with Russia and East Asian countries.

Russia is not a strategic partner of Saudi Arabia, but given its oil production capacity, Russia has become an important interlocutor of Saudi Arabia in OPEC+. In addition to energy policy cooperation, Saudi Arabia is also exploring cooperation with Russia in broader areas such as politics, economy, and regional policy and security issues. Compared with Western leaders, only Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed publicly at a time when the international community has lashed out at Saudi Arabia following the Khashoggi killing.

In August last year, some Western and Arab media, citing sources, reported that Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Prince Khalid and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu signed a "military cooperation agreement" during an international military-technical forum held in Russia. The details of the agreement were not disclosed to the outside world, but the move was made after the U.S. pulled out of the Patriot missile defense system deployed in Saudi Arabia.

"In the context of the unfavorable relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia has the motivation to further 'look east' and turn to other major powers to seek diplomatic balance. China and Russia seem to provide an alternative to the United States." Zou Zhiqiang believes, "But this does not mean that Saudi Arabia really wants to choose China and Russia as an alternative, and China and Russia cannot replace the United States in terms of security, and Saudi Arabia uses it more as a means to put pressure on the United States.”

  Related reports:

The leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia refused to answer Biden's "help" calls, and the United States made the Middle East oil production increase plan to fail? (World Wide Web)

[Global Times reporter Li Meng and Shen Xiaoxiao] US President Biden signed an executive order on the 8th, announcing that he would stop importing oil and other energy products from Russia. The Wall Street Journal, citing sources, reported on the same day that in the face of soaring oil prices, Biden sought help from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, two major oil producers, but the leaders of these two countries have recently refused to accept the US President's request. telephone. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, America's Middle East allies did not fully support Washington. Some analysts believe that there are multiple reasons for this phenomenon.

Did Biden let the Middle East oil production increase plan in vain?

According to the "Wall Street Journal" report on the 8th, officials from the United States and Middle East countries revealed that the White House recently tried to arrange for Biden to have a phone call with the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss the issue of slowing the surge in oil prices. However, both the Saudi crown prince and the UAE crown prince of Abu Dhabi have declined to speak to Biden in recent weeks. A U.S. official said: “There was an expectation for the call (Biden and the Saudi crown prince), but the call didn’t materialize… It was part of an effort to open the Saudi oil floodgates.”

In fact, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, many Middle Eastern countries did not support the traditional ally the United States. On February 24, US Secretary of State Blinken called the UAE foreign minister to stress "the importance of building a strong international response to support Ukraine's sovereignty". However, the United Arab Emirates abstained from voting the next day when the UN Security Council voted on a draft resolution on the situation in Ukraine. Two days later, the UN Security Council met again to vote on Resolution 2623, which called for an emergency special UN General Assembly on the situation in Ukraine, and the UAE again abstained from voting. It is worth noting that the sponsors of both resolutions include the United States.

The US "Capitol Hill" and other media said that Saudi Arabia is the only oil-producing country with spare production capacity. However, when asked to increase crude oil production to help the West offset the consequences of sanctions against Russia, the Saudi crown prince told French President Emmanuel Macron that Riyadh is more Willing to abide by the production agreement with Moscow. Israel is a staunch ally of the United States, but the Israeli government has been trying to avoid siding with the United States or Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Egypt has also been cautious to avoid damaging relations with Moscow.

America and the Middle East are drifting apart

The Wall Street Journal analyzed that the reason why the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates let Biden “close the door” is related to the deterioration of relations between Washington, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi after Biden took office. Saudi Arabia hopes that the United States can support Riyadh's intervention in the Yemen conflict, but Biden has refused to list the Houthis as a "terrorist organization" and blocked Saudi Arabia's import of F-35 fighter jets from the United States. In addition, Biden also claimed that there is "nothing to be desired" about the Saudi leadership.

The UAE has also been "coldly treated" by the Biden administration. Agar, a regional affairs researcher, said the UAE believes its main security threat is from Iran and its weapons in the region, while the US does not see it that way, according to the Gulf Times. The United Arab Emirates believes that the U.S. attempt to restart the Iran nuclear deal harms Abu Dhabi's interests.

Before Biden took office, the United States' Middle East policy had dissatisfied Washington's various allies. The Wall Street Journal said that the Obama administration's Middle East policy was a disaster. The premature withdrawal of troops from Iraq, intervention in Libya caused tragic consequences, and a series of miscalculations in Syria, which made the entire Middle East feel that the United States is not only incompetent, but also unreliable.